Collapse of nuclear deterrence: rise of AI-governed strike doctrines

🌐 GLOBAL POLICY MEMORANDUM

Issued by: Agerico Montecillo De Villa employing Bridge360 Strategic Intelligence & Risk Analysis

Date: June 22, 2025

Subject: Systemic Fragility of Nuclear Facility Attacks as a Global Policy Attractor

🔺 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This memorandum assesses the escalating discourse and planning around military attacks on sovereign nuclear facilities—particularly in the context of potential U.S. or allied action against Iran—as a high-entropy geopolitical attractor. Using the Bridge360 Metatheory Model (v11), we find this policy attractor to be fragile, volatile, and systemically destabilizing across all major temporal phases (short, medium, and long-term). The conceptual erosion of the nuclear deterrence regime may precipitate paradigm collapse globally.

🔹 STRATEGIC DIAGNOSIS

🔍 Observed Global Memetic Drift:

• “Rogue state logic” is increasingly used to justify preemptive aggression, bypassing legal and multilateral channels.

• Memes such as “Strike first to prevent a second Hiroshima” proliferate in Western and Israeli discourse spaces.

• Reaction memes such as “We are all Iran now” gain traction in the Global South and non-aligned blocs.

🔍 Entropic System Assessment:

Phase	Systemic State	Fragility	Volatility
0–3 months	Information shock, oil spikes, proxy wars begin	⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️	⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡
3–24 months	Institutional erosion, nuclear taboo weakens	⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️	⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡
2–10 years	Multipolar proliferation normalizes	⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️	⚡⚡⚡⚡
10+ years	Collapse of deterrence, rise of AI-governed strike doctrines	⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️	⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡

🔹 SYSTEMIC RISKS IDENTIFIED (Bridge360 Core Components)

Core Component	Systemic Impact
EDA (Entropy-Driven Altruism)	Fully reversed: aggression amplifies entropy rather than reducing it.
RIM (Rules of Inference Memetics)	Fallacious reasoning (“strike = safety”) spreads rapidly and virally.
Volatility Paradox	Stability illusion masks risk of nuclear paradigm rupture.
Chaos Attractor Dynamics	Unpredictable geopolitical realignments and actor escalation patterns.
Entropic Morphism Failure	Normative frameworks fail to translate between West, Global South, and religious blocs.

🔹 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR GLOBAL GOVERNANCE BODIES

1. Immediate Action (0–3 months)

• Convene emergency UNSC and IAEA resolution reaffirming the integrity of nuclear sovereignty norms.

• Mandate global memetic audit of preemptive-strike rhetoric in both state and non-state communications.

2. Short to Medium-Term Action (3 months–5 years)

• Develop Entropy-Cooperative Deterrence Framework: align security guarantees with entropy-reducing measures such as:

  • Joint inspections

  • AI-audited verification systems

  • Energy-sharing incentives for compliance

• Expand Regional Entropic Alliances: empower the Global South to serve as stabilizing entropy buffers.

3. Long-Term Institutional Reform (5–20 years)

• Integrate Bridge360 Volatility Diagnostics into all strategic nuclear governance audits.

• Transition from truth-value-centric diplomacy to probabilistic trust modeling: factor memetic stability and feedback loop coherence in treaties.

🔹 CRITICAL RED LINES TO AVOID

1. Direct strike on nuclear facility of a sovereign state without multilateral UN consensus.

2. Deployment of AI/LLMs to generate public rationales for preemptive nuclear action.

3. Memetic entrenchment of "nuclear might is right" in educational, religious, or broadcast systems.

   
   

🛡️ CALL TO ACTION

The international system stands at a memetic bifurcation point. One path leads to a renewal of entropy-stabilizing cooperation. The other leads to the collapse of the nuclear deterrence paradigm and the rise of thermodynamically unsustainable escalation spirals.

The Bridge360 Strategic Intelligence Unit strongly urges:

• All nuclear-capable states to suspend all plans or rhetoric implying first-strike rights on nuclear infrastructure.

• Civil society, media, and AI developers to implement memetic filters against fallacious war justification logic.

• All global governance actors to integrate entropy-based diagnostics in forecasting, treaty-making, and crisis prevention.

🔹 ISSUED BY:

Bridge360 Strategic Intelligence & Risk Analysis UnitSan Juan, Batangas • Manila • GenevaContact: info@bridge360.ph | adevilla@kssp.upd.edu.ph