Short-sightedness, Dynasties and Cryptocurrencies
Updated: Aug 31, 2022
"Ah corruption? Kalimutan na lang natin 'yung nakaraan. Sasabihin natin, 'Ah sige that's not under my watch, hindi ako, hindi ako namamahala noon eh. Ngayon ako na namamahala, so wala nang ganyan ("Let's forget about the past. I'll say, 'That's not under my watch, it's not under my administration. Now that it's my administration, corruption will have no place," transalation by Ana Felicia Bajo),” goes a statement from a public servant. Indicates shortsightedness.
As a public servant, one ought to guard public coffers. With this very statement, however, our public servant here encourages corruption. Generalised, his statement says if you steal from government and the leader coming in next is someone like our public servant here, you are in luck, you get to keep your loot. All everyone needs to do is to make sure that the public servant coming in next is someone like our public servant here. Short-sighted.
As someone who plans to steal from government, our public servant here ought to keep silent about his plans. Obvious reasons. As it is, our public servant here is broadcasting his plans to everyone by making this statement. Short-sighted, still.
Avoidance of short-sightedness involves clear and reliable deduction. The kind that is not only valid but also sound. Not only sound but also taken in the right context. These considerations involve a lot of reading and patience. (Discussed here in this blog: https://www.pinoytoolbox.org/post/strategic-thinking-form-content-and-context.)
A lot of reading and patience, the general public does not possess. This is indicated by World Bank research a handful of years ago; it points out that “81% of (Filipino) students performed below the basic (reading) proficiency level.” Good chance the general public relies mainly on verbal account from radio and television programs. Same with video shorts on Youtube, Facebook, Tiktok, and similar platforms. Same with vlogs. Limits the source of information, limits the breath of information the public is able to retain.
With much difficulty with reading, good chance, therefore, one tries to avoid books, broadsheets, academic journals, blogs and similar media. These are the media preferred by those who have much to offer having been exposed themselves to these kinds of media. These offer virtuous circle, more information. This avoidance leads to missed opportunities for learning the reliable kinds of reasoning — reasoning that vaccinates mental models against fake news and lies, against fallacious forms of reasoning.
Not until the advent of Shannon’s Law do we have some satisfactory explanation as to why 99% of eukaryotes reproduce sexually.
99% of eukaryotes reproduce by sexual reproduction. Easy. Male and female chromosomes together represent “more information.”
Thanks to Shannon’s Law, “more information” law, reason why in-breeding is pernicious is now easily understandable.
Looks like our public servant here is not aware of the implications of his statement as per the “more information” law. (Discussed here in this blog: https://www.pinoytoolbox.org/post/darwin-kropotkin-shannon-geeky-world-of-politics.)
Philippine politics replete with indications of dynastic rule is in the direction opposite of “more information,” precisely in the direction of in-breeding of ideas.
A close relative of our public servant here gets to realize this tenet, “if you steal from government and the leader coming in next is someone like our public servant here, you are in luck, you get to keep your loot.” This close relative of our public servant here, ergo, pushes for dynastic rule. Win-win for the members of the dynasty, everyone gets to keep his loot. How it goes.
Audacity of the members of dynasties is rooted here in this belief.
If I am a good leader, I get elected into position of power. I get elected into position of power. Therefore, I, as indicated by the victory, am a good leader.
Same with this belief.
If I am chosen by God, I get elected. I get elected, therefore, I am chosen by God.
Same form as with this.
If I have full-blown AIDS, I get fever. I get fever. Therefore, I have full-blown AIDS.
(Discussed here in this blog: https://www.pinoytoolbox.org/post/fallacies-dull-one-s-capacity-to-reason.)
What applies to dynastic rules, applies also to get-rich-quick communities.
Get-rich-quick communities, e.g. cryptocurrency communities, are similarly predisposed to failure as much as dynasties are. Those who belong to this kind of communities are precisely impoverished in terms of information and required reading as to be able to understand how mental models of the likes of Warren Buffet work. Those who belong to this kind of communities do not understand how accurate predictions underpin good investments and how correct forms of reasoning underpin accurate predictions themselves. Precisely due to this kind of impoverishment, those who belong to this kind of communities are predisposed to fallacious forms of reasoning.
If we are the chosen people of God, then we are going to be blessed. We are blessed. Therefore, we are the chosen people of God.
Same story, Affirming the Consequent Fallacy.
Some pyramiding testimonies are altogether the same story.
If I am on the right path, my business is going to do well. My business is certainly doing well. Therefore, I am on the right path.
Add, fools in government.
If God wants me to rule, I am going to be elected. I have been elected. Therefore, God wants me to rule.
It is not an accident that those who support dynastic tendencies may also be involved with get-rich-quick communities, conspiracy theories and religious cults. They are our concern (Discussed here in this blog: https://www.pinoytoolbox.org/post/zombies-the-enemies). Seriously, our concern.